[India Entry Guide] In 2026, the yardstick for India's economic statistics changed — Rereading the market with the new CPI, IIP, PPI and Index of Services Production

Hello, this is Adullam Consulting.

These days, companies revising their India market materials often ask us: "Last year's report gave India's inflation rate as a certain percent, but we are told this year's published figure uses a different basis. Which number should we use?" We also receive inquiries saying the industrial output growth rate placed in a board report does not match the government's announcement.

The reason is simple. In 2026 the Indian government changed the base year of gross domestic product (GDP), the consumer price index (CPI), the index of industrial production (IIP) and the wholesale price index (WPI) all at once, and also launched a new monthly indicator measuring the services sector. The very yardstick for reading the numbers has changed.

Today I will summarize the Indian economic statistics that changed in 2026 and the latest published figures, along with what Korean companies need to correct in their market research, pricing and contract materials.

1. India's statistics changed in 2026 at a glance

The base year is the reference point at which an index is set to 100. When the base year changes, the items surveyed and their weights change too. Mixing new-series and old-series figures in a single table therefore leads to misreading the trend.

When releasing the new CPI, the Ministry of Statistics also published a linking factor connecting the old and new series, as well as a back series. To look at trends over several years, you should use these linking data so that the figures are consistent.

2. The new CPI — Indian consumers' shopping basket has changed

The new CPI rebuilt its items and weights using the results of the 2023-24 Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES). According to materials summarizing the government announcement, the number of items rose from 299 to 358 (308 goods and 50 services), and the weight of food and beverages fell from 45.86% to 36.75%. This means the share of food in Indian household spending has shrunk while the share of services and manufactured goods has grown.

Looking at recent figures, retail inflation in September 2026 was 5.54% and food inflation was 7.74%. Compared with the 2.75% inflation rate for January 2026, the first release of the new series, the pace of increase has picked up. The Ministry of Statistics also publishes state-level and item-level indices, and October inflation is scheduled to be released on November 12, 2026.

For consumer goods companies, these numbers serve as a basis for price negotiations. When renegotiating supply prices with distributors or adjusting the MRP, presenting both the price trend for the category your product belongs to and inflation in the states where you sell makes your case more persuasive.

The item counts and weights are figures confirmed from secondary sources summarizing the government announcement. Please verify detailed item weights against the Ministry of Statistics' original documents. Also, monthly CPI figures are provisional and may be revised later, and state-level inflation can differ considerably from the national average.

3. The new IIP and WPI · PPI — numbers for reading manufacturing and B2B demand

In addition to mining and manufacturing, the new IIP reports 'electricity and gas supply' and 'water supply, sewerage and waste management' as separate sectors. The September 2026 IIP rose 6.7% year on year, and August was 8.0% (quick estimate). Manufacturing rose 7.6% and electricity and gas supply rose 11.2%. Of the 23 manufacturing industry groups (NIC 2-digit), 17 grew, and by use-based classification, intermediate goods, primary goods and capital goods contributed most to growth.

On the price side, when the WPI moved to a 2022-23 base on June 15, 2026, the number of items rose from 697 to 957. The PPI released alongside it comes in three forms: output PPI, input PPI (trial) and services PPI. The services PPI covers seven services: banking, securities trading, insurance, pension fund management, railways, air (passenger) transport and telecommunications. The government has stated that, to give users time to transition, it will publish the WPI alongside the PPI for five years before moving to the PPI.

• Parts and materials companies: gauge demand from the IIP trends of customer industries, and watch cost pressure through output and input PPIs.
• Long-term supply contracts: if a price adjustment clause references the '2011-12 base WPI', agree in advance with the counterparty how to move to the new series.
• Equipment and machinery companies: the capital goods item in the use-based IIP is useful for reading the investment cycle.

4. The Index of Services Production (ISP) — a new monthly indicator for the services sector

To measure short-term trends in the services sector, the Ministry of Statistics has been releasing the ISP with base year 2024-25 monthly on a trial basis since July 2026. It currently covers 19 services sub-sectors and uses administrative data such as GST outward supply data, bank credit and deposits, insurance premiums, and passenger and freight transport distances.

On October 6, 2026, the Ministry of Statistics released an approach paper to expand coverage to 22 sectors by adding health, education and public administration. This would widen coverage relative to services gross value added (GVA) from about 60% to 78.4%.

The ISP is still at the trial stage, and the sector expansion is only a proposal, not yet finalized. The current framework excludes core government functions, non-market activities and GST-exempt services. Since the figures may change, we recommend reading them together with industry data rather than using them as the sole basis for investment decisions.

5. What changes for Korean companies

From the perspective of a Korean head office, the biggest change is that 'older materials should not be used as they are.' Entry feasibility reports, business plans for an Indian Private Limited company and board reporting materials prepared before 2025 are likely to contain old-series figures. Even for the same 'September industrial output growth rate', the old-base and new-base figures cannot be compared with each other.

Another task is distinguishing official statistics from private estimates. Private figures such as festive-season sales forecasts are fast, but their survey methods vary widely. The safe sequence is to capture the broad trend with official statistics, then confirm the pace in your own industry with private data and field research.

1. Mark the base year on the India market materials you hold.Next to each GDP, CPI, IIP and WPI figure used in business plans and reports, note whether it is from the old or new series, and replace mixed figures with the new series.
2. Select two or three indicators suited to your industry.Referring to the table above, decide which indicators to track monthly, and update them in line with the Ministry of Statistics' Advance Release Calendar.
3. Review price-indexed contract clauses.If supply or lease contracts reference the WPI or CPI, confirm which series is meant and discuss how to change it with local counsel.
4. Verify statistical figures against prices in the field.Survey store and online prices directly in the states where you will sell, and check whether the statistical trend also holds for your products.

Frequently asked questions

Closing

2026 is the year the yardstick for India's economic statistics was reset. The new CPI shows consumption with a larger share of services, the new IIP and PPI show the changed industrial structure, and the ISP shows movements in services sectors that were previously hard to see. By aligning your figures to the new basis and checking them against field prices, your judgments about the Indian market become much more solid. Adullam Market Research provides end-to-end support, from selecting official indicators suited to your industry and sorting out base years to state-level field price surveys.

Adullam Consulting is here to help.

Sources: Retail inflation based on Consumer Price Index in September, 2026 is 5.54% · FIRST PRESS RELEASE OF CONSUMER PRICE INDEX ON BASE 2024=100 · 2026: India’s New Base Year for Key Economic Indicators · New CPI Series 2024 Base